Black Friday FY25: What It Means for the Markets and the Economy
1. What Is Black Friday?
Black Friday deals is one of the biggest shopping days of the year in the United States. On this day, firms across categories like electronics, apparel, toys, furniture and even travel offer heavy discounts to attract buyers. On FY24 alone American consumers spent $ 10.8 billion online, marking a 10.2% gain compared to FY23.
Retail sales rose 3.4% YoY from about $7,073 billion to $7,265 billion in FY23 to FY24 respectively. Roughly 87.3 million Americans shopped online and 81.7 million visited stores during FY24. The auspicious day has become a critical economic gauge where both investors and analysts watch it closely to understand whether consumer demand is strong or faltering.
2. Why Is It Called “Black Friday”?
The term “Black Friday” comes from a simple accounting idea. When a business is losing money, the numbers are shown in red ink. When a business becomes profitable, the numbers turn black. The strong sales during this weekend often push their financial statements “into the black.” That is why this day is called Black Friday.
When is black Friday: It happens in November because it is the day after Thanksgiving, which marks the start of the holiday shopping season.
3. How Black Friday Influences the Markets
Analysts believe that if spending is strong, the market turns more optimistic because strong retail activity usually leads to better Q4 earnings. If spending is weak, investors turn cautious, as it may signal that consumers are becoming careful due to inflation, job worries or falling savings.
Electronics and gadgets are usually the strongest-performing category, with sales rising anywhere between 15–25%. Payment companies also see a sharp jump in transaction activity during this period, often revenues rising 10–15% compared to normal weeks.
4.1 Retail and Department Stores
Retail and department stores, on the other hand, are the biggest beneficiaries as a business group, because they sell across many categories and see the largest jump in overall sales and footfall. Many retails firms often see their revenues jump by 20–30%.
Recent results also show the same trend. Walmart reported revenue of about $173.4 billion in Q4 FY24, representing roughly 5.7–6% growth compared to Q4 FY23.
Retailers like Costco, Best Buy and Macy’s also typically benefit during the holiday period as higher footfall, strong promotional activity and increased demand for electronics and apparel support their Q4 performance.
While the exact numbers vary each year, analysts note that festive-season traffic and Black Friday deals often help improve revenue momentum for these major retail brands.
Stocks to Watch Out For: Walmart (WMT), Target (TGT), Costco (COST), Best Buy (BBY), Macy’s (M)
4.2 E-Commerce Platforms
E-commerce has grown much faster than physical retail in the last decade, and the numbers clearly show this shift. Shopify alone has recorded nearly 30% growth in Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) recently.
Amazon processes nearly 12.9 million orders every day worldwide, which means about 8,900 orders per minute. Shopify handled about $74.75 billion in Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) in Q1 2025, reflecting nearly 23% year-on-year growth compared to Q1 2024.
In the US, online spending during Black Friday has touched USD 10.8 billion in a single day, showing how strong the digital shopping trend has become.
Stocks to watch out for: Amazon (AMZN), Shopify (SHOP), Alibaba (BABA), Etsy (ETSY), Nykaa (NYKAA).
4.3 Electronics and Technology Companies
Electronics see one of the biggest jumps in demand during Black Friday. Companies such as Apple, Samsung, Sony, HP and Lenovo benefit directly from this surge. In recent years, electronics have recorded 15–25% higher sales during Black Friday week. Apple alone has reported $ 93,736 million in Q4FY24.
Stocks to watch out for: Apple (AAPL), Samsung Electronics (005930.KS), Sony (SONY), HP (HPQ), Lenovo (0992.HK)
4.4 Logistics and Delivery Companies
When online shopping rises, parcel movement increases automatically. During the Black Friday to Christmas period, companies like FedEx, UPS and DHL typically handle 20–30% more deliveries than usual.
In some years, peak-season volumes have even crossed 100 million packages per day across the U.S. courier network. FedEx recently reported quarterly revenues of around USD 22 billion, and UPS handled nearly 24 million packages daily on average during the last holiday peak.
Stocks to watch out for: FedEx (FDX), UPS (UPS), Deutsche Post DHL (DPW.DE)
4.5 Payment and Fintech Companies
Payment and fintech companies benefit each time a customer pays online or in-store. Visa and Mastercard together process trillions of dollars and holiday seasons often push their quarterly numbers higher.
During Black Friday transaction counts can rise 10–15%, with online payments growing even faster. PayPal, which processed more than USD 400 billion in total payment volume last quarter, also sees higher activity as people shop on multiple platforms.
Stocks to watch out for: Visa (V), Mastercard (MA), PayPal (PYPL), Block (SQ), Affirm (AFRM)
5. Industries That Face Challenges
Luxury brands like Gucci, Burberry and Louis Vuitton do not give big discounts. So, during Black Friday, many people wait for offers and full-price sales slowdown. Small local shops also suffer because they cannot match the low prices of big retailers. Travel and leisure take a small hit too, as most families prefer to spend their money on shopping that week.
6. Stock Market Reaction to Black Friday
Stock markets react quickly to Black Friday numbers because they give an early idea of how strong the holiday season will be. If sales grow more than 6–8%, retail and e-commerce stocks usually open higher the next trading day. But if growth is only 3–4%, investors worry that consumers are cutting back due to inflation or weak sentiment. Sectors like consumer discretionary, electronics, logistics and payments get the most attention during this period because they feel the impact first.
Investors also look closely at how people are spending, not just how much. They track online versus offline sales, average order values, discount levels, return rates and inventory positions. Heavy discounting may push sales up but reduce profit margins, and high inventory means more discounting later, which can hurt Q4 earnings.
Final Thoughts
Black Friday is not just a shopping phenomenon. It is an important financial indicator for investors. It helps them understand whether demand is rising or slowing, whether consumers feel confident or cautious and whether markets are moving towards profit or risk.
For investors, it acts as a warning system that signals the strength of the upcoming quarters. A strong Black Friday builds confidence for Q4 and Q1FY25 earnings. A weak one creates doubt. And that is why this single day has such a powerful influence on markets, sectors and the overall economy.
Source:
Retail sales
Apple financial report
Wall mart revenue
Shopify source
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